Social Science Research Council

“Dynamics of Civil Wars”

What leads armed groups to continue fighting, even in the face of extensive attempts at negotiated settlements or imposed military solutions? The rich information available on the activities of armed groups contrasts with few systematic explanations of this behavior. Systematic models, in turn, often fail to account for the environment in which armed groups operate. In my dissertation I propose a new theory of civil war duration and termination that combines the systematic with in-depth knowledge of conflict. How actors benefit from opportunities that exist only during conflict explains duration and termination of conflict. During wartime, actors exploit opportunities unavailable to them under conditions of peace. Wars continue when, conditional on survival, actors remain able to exploit these unique opportunities. The theory suggests that policy-makers concentrate resources on activities that choke off the collateral benefits to conflict. The policy implications of this theory diverge from the predictions of the credible commitment view of war termination prevalent in the literature and policy circles. 

My dissertation research investigates this theory of wartime opportunities through field research on the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) using parallel qualitative and quantitative strategies: interviews with ex-combatants and civilians and compilation of a disaggregated database on the conflict.  The multiple dimensions of warfare and political issues at play in Lebanon allow me to examine in one conflict what researchers would have to explore in many separate conflicts.  I also plan to explicitly generalize findings from the fieldwork through a research design that places the Lebanese Civil War in context using cross-national data and other national studies and by an analysis of the conflict in Northern Ireland. My work fits into a larger research agenda that aims to generate and test a better theory of the dynamics of civil wars that can explain outcomes during conflict and their effects on the post-conflict situation.